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Abstract:
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Green hydrogen, aligned with Net Zero initiatives, emerges as a strategic solution for de- carbonizing the transportation sector. Given Brazil’s potential, with an energy mix that is 89.2 % renewable and consistent progress in adopting unconventional vehicles, this gas has substantial capacity to integrate into the national economy. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental feasibility of hydrogen- powered vehicles in Brazil, detailing the hydrogen production cycle, including production, storage, transportation, distribution, and end-use in vehicles. The methodology comprised three main models: the first analyzed the necessary growth of the energy mix to support a partial fleet of hydrogen vehicles; the second mapped the hydrogen lifecycle and calculated the LCOH to monitor the expansion of FCEVs; and the third expanded the study by incorpo- rating diverse production sources and comparing the economic and environmental feasibility of FCEVs against ICEVs, considering Brazil’s best scenarios. The results indicated that, to sustain a 2.4 % growth in the FCEV fleet by 2032, renewable energies (solar, wind, and hydroelectric) would need to expand by 1.4 %. The hydrogen supply chain model identified that, to meet demand, 47 % of Brazilian cities would need to produce hydrogen using solar energy, with 20 requiring centralized plants. The gas cost in these scenarios ranged from 10 to 35 USD/kg. However, by exploring alternative energy sources in detailed model, re- sults showed that hydrogen costs vary widely across the country, fluctuating between 4.91 USD/kg in areas connected to the electrical grid, with low water costs and no transportation, such as Codó (MA), to over 200 USD/kg in regions with low renewable energy efficiency, such as São Gabriel da Cachoeira (AM). Centralized solar energy scenarios presented more competitive and stable costs among renewable sources (12.75 USD/kg), whereas decentralized alternatives reached costs exceeding 17.75 USD/kg. Wind energy demon- strated similar costs, with minimum values of 10.44 USD/kg, but its feasibility depends on specific local conditions due to the significant wind speed variability across Brazil. When comparing vehicles in the country’s best regions, FCEVs showed a reduction of 34 % to 80 % in CO2 emissions compared to ICEVs, depending on the fuel production source. How- ever, FCEVs presented total costs of up to 95,000 USD over 20 years, compared to 35,000 USD for ICEVs, with vehicle acquisition being the largest contributor to this difference, as fuel, maintenance, and tax costs exhibited minimal divergence. Finally, this study provided an innovative perspective on implementing hydrogen in Brazil, considering costs, cultural factors, and regional specificities. Despite infrastructure challenges, it demonstrated that key regions and specific technologies can make hydrogen vehicle economies viable, highlighting Brazil’s potential to lead the transition in the hydrogen-powered transportation sector. |
