A Grande Estratégia Chinesa e os impactos para a economia do Brasil (2020-2024)

Abstract

This monograph examines how China seeks to implement its grand strategy in Brazil and how this process relates to the structural rivalry between China and the United States. The study assumes that China’s rise is reshaping international politics and intensifying competition for influence in strategic regions, including the Western Hemisphere. Its central objective is to understand how the expansion of Chinese initiatives affects Brazil’s political economy and whether this engagement represents a challenge to United States hegemony. The research analyzes the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development, Security, and Civilization Initiatives, interpreted as China’s main instruments of international projection and as components of a broader project of global governance. The methodological approach is a case study, which makes it possible to examine Brazil as a privileged site for observing Sino American competition due to its economic relevance, its deepening partnership with China, and its historical relationship with the United States. The analysis is grounded in offensive realism, which views great powers as actors that seek to expand their relative power in an anarchic international system. The discussion shows that China has increased its presence in Brazil through trade, investment, financing, and political cooperation, although Brazil has not yet formally adhered to the Chinese initiatives. The findings indicate that China’s influence already generates significant effects on the Brazilian economy, particularly in the energy, infrastructure, and export sectors. At the same time, China’s growing presence pressures the United States to reassess its role in the region. The study concludes that Brazil occupies a strategic position in the rivalry between the two major powers and that its bargaining power tends to increase, requiring a balanced stance oriented toward the preservation of autonomy. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of how competition between China and the United States shapes opportunities and risks for Brazil in an international environment marked by escalating geopolitical rivalry.